It was the sharpest jump in more than three decades, but housing watchers are already poking holes in the new home sales numbers. After delays due to the government shutdown, data for both September and October were released together, in addition to a large downward revision for August. Follow the numbers, and the gains are not quite what the headline seems.
Contracts signed to buy newly built homes jumped 25.4 percent in October month to month, after falling 6.6 percent in September from August. The seasonally adjusted annual rate went from an originally reported 421,000 units in August, which was revised down to 379,000 units, and to 354,000 units in September. The number for September was a 10 percent drop from September of 2012. It then rose to 444,000 units in October. There is a nearly 20 percent margin of error on all these numbers.
"The October 'preliminary' report released this morning, along with the terrible August and September data, is the outlier and will be revised lower next month in line with the new trend lower that began in July," noted housing analyst Mark Hanson.
August sales estimates were revised down by 15 percent on an unadjusted basis and September sales dropped from there.
"Both the September and October new home sales data were released together and averaged 399,000 annualized versus the estimate of 424,000 and compares with the average year-to-date of 422,000," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst of economic advisory firm The Lindsey Group. "The weakness seen in July through September was clearly in response to the rise in rates and the almost 25-basis-point decrease in mortgage rates in October seemed to have brought out buyers that were previously on the fence."
[3]
Builders say it wasn't just the falling rates, but the end of the government shutdown.
Source : http://www.cnbc.com/id/101246658
No comments:
Post a Comment